The deadliest mistakes people make before a hurricane

Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday and continued to hurtle toward Florida. When the system makes landfall midweek, it will bring life-threatening dangers including storm surge, flooding and catastrophic winds to the region.

The hurricane is coming, less than two weeks after the state was devastated by Hurricane Helene. But if you’re a Floridian or know someone who is, don’t let storm fatigue keep you or your loved ones from taking action this time. This extremely dangerous new storm is shaping up to be a historic event.

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay, Florida, warned: “If the storm continues on its current path, this will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in more than a hundred years.” The National Hurricane Center told Huffin in a statement The Post, “Milton is the third fastest rapidly intensifying storm ever recorded in the Atlantic.”

Whether you live in the path of a hurricane now or may live in the path of a hurricane in the future, you need to know which weather warnings to take seriously so you can make the most informed decisions for you and your family.

That’s what you get from experts who study hurricanes for a living. The Huffington Post asked meteorologists about the deadliest mistakes people make before a hurricane hits. Here’s what they say, along with some other mistakes to avoid.

Storm surge, or what happens when a hurricane’s strong onshore winds push water suddenly up coastal areas, is the leading cause of death in hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Water is the deadliest part of a hurricane in every sense of the word,” said Austin Flannery, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in the Tampa Bay area. “From storm surge to flooding rainfall, this is the most dangerous part that people often underestimate.”

As of Monday, storm surges of 8 to 12 feet are expected in parts of Florida.

To better understand storm surge risks, you should know your flood evacuation zone and do not ignore evacuation orders. You can find storm surge risks through the National Hurricane Center here. The Florida Department of Emergency Management also maintains a “Know Your Zone” map where you can enter a location’s address and see the estimated flood risk. Zone A is the most vulnerable area and the area most likely to be evacuated first.

“If your home is in Zone A and you evacuate to a hotel that is also in Zone A, you are still in a dangerous situation,” Flannery said.

At times, panicked residents may be tempted to drive far away to escape the storm, but with Milton affecting the entire Florida peninsula, that’s the wrong goal, Flannery said. Instead, Flannery said, it’s best to evacuate to a shelter outside the flood evacuation zone, which may not be as far away as you think.

“If someone lives in a safe, sturdy building away from the water, that might be a safe place to go, and it doesn’t have to be hundreds of miles away,” he said.

Even if you live inland, you’re not immune to the risk of deadly flooding. Be aware that even if you live far from the coast, heavy rainfall during a major storm can be deadly.

Hurricane Milton is currently a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 175 mph. Joseph Trujillo Falcón, a researcher in the Department of Climate Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, said the Category 5 designation “provides a good understanding of potential wind damage, but Floods caused by storm tides and rainfall were not taken into account. “

But Trujillo Falcon said the deadly rain-related damage “could extend hundreds of miles from the coast.”

Just look at what happened in North Carolina’s interior cities after Hurricane Helene for a cautionary example. “The rain from Helen devastated towns in North Carolina,” said David Ryglicki, director of meteorological research at weather app MyRadar and a former National Hurricane Center employee.

Once heavy rain begins during a storm, you may need to shelter in place. Follow the instructions of local officials.

“It only takes about six inches [of rainfall] Tow a car away,” Trujillo Falcon said. The Federal Emergency Management Agency warns that walking or driving through floodwaters is also dangerous because downed power lines can also energize the water.

In addition to the deadly effects of storm surge and heavy rainfall, meteorologists say people should be aware of two common hurricane misconceptions that can be harmful:

“People think ‘I survived the last storm, I’m going to be fine this time.’ It’s survivor bias,” said Matthew Cappucci, senior meteorologist at MyRadar.

“Two storms with the same intensity and landfall location will have very different impacts based on size, speed and many other factors,” Cappucci continued. “I implore people to be aware of storm surge evacuations.”

Flannery specifically noted that with Hurricane Milton, the last storm of this magnitude to hit Tampa was in 1921.

“No one really alive today would have any frame of reference to compare themselves to,” he said. “It’s hard for us to understand what that might actually mean in terms of impact.”

From forecast cones to spaghetti charts, meteorologists use a variety of storm track and intensity models and visualization charts when sharing forecasts with the public.

The spaghetti map you might see is a collection of 20 to 40 models that visualize where each individual storm track might go, Ryglicki explained. But don’t rely on a single forecast path suggested by a forecast model. “The hurricane center doesn’t even do that,” Rigliecki said.

Instead, he said, the National Hurricane Center will use what is called a consensus among many computer models to create forecast cones that represent the likely path of the storm’s center.

Flannery said he’s currently seeing “a fair amount of denial about the scope of this storm that we’re seeing.” [Milton]”. As a result, people will “look for solutions that are better than they actually are, but that’s also dangerous,” he said.

In other words, they may have misinterpreted the prediction cone.

“This cone means the center of the storm could be anywhere from Cedar Key to Fort Myers,” Milton said. [in Florida] … That doesn’t account for the impact,” Flannery said. “The impact will also be felt further away from the center. North of the center there will be strong winds, flooding and rainfall. South [of the center will be experiencing] Storm surge.

During a major hurricane, deciding when and where to evacuate and how much your home will be affected by the storm is a matter of life or death. That’s why Cappucci said the public shouldn’t interpret weather forecasts to make such decisions, but should instead follow the advice of meteorologists.

Meteorologists have the subject matter expertise to interpret models, as well as years of experience in pattern recognition and model bias to make forecasts, he said.

“You have to find a trustworthy source, not TikTok user 79274928 who downloaded weather maps, but a degreed meteorologist,” Cappucci said. “Get weather information from them, get evacuation information from state and local officials.”